Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

MNB easing to slow further, Turkey election preview

The post-meeting communications from Hungary’s central bank (MNB) this week support our view that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow even further over the coming months. Meanwhile, Turkey’s...

28th March 2024 · 10 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Tusk’s first 100 days, CBRT’s pre-election surprise

The new Polish government (which marks its 100 day milestone today) has successfully unblocked EU funds and delivered a wave of optimism that has helped Poland's financial markets outperform those in...

22nd March 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Tightening in Turkey, CNB holds onto its hawkishness

Pressures on Turkish policymakers are building ahead of the local elections on 31st March as capital inflows have slowed and FX reserves are falling again. We doubt the central bank will hike interest...

15th March 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

HUF struggles, Russia’s election coming into view

The dispute between the Hungarian central bank and the government heated up further this week, which has fuelled a narrative that threats to central bank independence are responsible for the recent...

8th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs?

The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation...

1st March 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE wage growth still hot, new Russia sanctions

The latest wage data released out of Poland and Hungary this week showed that labour cost pressures have remained very strong in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). So despite another slew of...

23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel’s rating downgrade, Turkey’s external position

The decision by Moody's to deliver Israel's first credit rating downgrade in its history late last week is a warning sign to policymakers that the strength of the public finances should not be taken...

16th February 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Czech euro adoption, Glapinski turns hawkish

The Czech government’s debate on adopting the euro took another step forward this week, although we think that the potential benefits of joining the single currency union would be outweighed by the...

9th February 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary-EU tensions cool, Czech currency valuation

Hungary dropped its veto against the EU's financing package for Ukraine on Thursday, ending a week of uncertainty that added downside risks to the currency. Provided the easing in tensions is...

2nd February 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary’s interest rate proposal, last CBRT rate hike

The proposal by the Hungarian government this week to change the reference rate used to price bank loans has sparked a lot of criticism and risks undermining the central bank’s independence. We think...

26th January 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

MNB to step up easing, inflation softens again in Israel

In Hungary, dovish comments from the central bank (MNB) deputy governor this week and recent softer-than-expected inflation data have prompted us to pencil in a larger 100bp interest rate cut at the...

19th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Soft CPI data point to faster rate cuts in parts of CEE

The softer-than-expected December inflation data released across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggest that further interest rate cuts will be delivered across the region over the coming...

12th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Bank of Israel cuts rates, Turkey’s rebalancing in focus

Israel's central bank started its monetary easing cycle this week with a 25bp interest rate cut - a move that came a bit sooner than we'd expected. But inflation risks are greater than most anticipate...

5th January 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

EU’s new fiscal rules, CNB joins the rate cutting club

EU finance ministers agreed on a new set of fiscal rules this week, but this doesn’t change our view that concerns about public debt dynamics will grow in parts of Central and Eastern Europe over the...

22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Assessing Russia's war hit, change of guard in Poland

Analysis by the US Treasury Department published this week gained a lot of attention for highlighting that Russia’s economy is now 5% smaller due to the war and sanctions than it otherwise would have...

15th December 2023 · 9 mins read