China Rapid Response GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep.) According to official GDP, growth more than doubled in q/q terms between Q2 and Q3, reaching a healthy 5.3% annualised rate. Our China Activity Proxy suggests that momentum isn’t quite this strong... 18th October 2023 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) After slowing sharply in Q2, broad credit growth edged up in August and held steady last month. Although a sharp rebound seems unlikely, we do think credit growth could pick up somewhat over the... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Merchandise Trade (Sep.) China’s export values continued to contract year-on-year in September. But to the extent that foreign demand has cooled recently, it is being reflected in export prices rather than export volumes... 13th October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) PPI deflation continued to ease in September. CPI inflation edged down, but core inflation remained at a six-month high, with services inflation staying at its highest in 19 months. We expect... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Sep.) The PMI surveys suggest another month of stable economic activity in September. A continued acceleration in construction activity appears to have offset a further softening in services activity... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) Although a slight uptick in activity was expected, the August data turned out to be even better than anticipated. Fiscal support shored up investment but the real bright spot was a healthy pick-up in... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response PBOC cuts reserve requirements The People’s Bank has just announced a cut to bank reserve requirements. With private sector credit demand still weak, this is a gesture rather than a meaningful support measure. Substantial rate cuts... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) China’s bank loan growth stabilised in August after declining for three consecutive months, and broad credit growth edged up from July’s record low. We think that policy easing could drive a modest... 11th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) CPI exited deflation in August, and PPI rose for the first time in nine months. Core inflation remained unchanged after hitting a 11-month high in July, while services inflation rose to its highest in... 11th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Trade (Aug.) China’s export values continued to contract in August but this mostly reflects lower prices. Export volumes continued to hold up well and are still above their pre-pandemic trend. We doubt this... 7th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Aug.) The PMI surveys suggest economic momentum stabilised in August after months of slowdown. Downward pressure on manufacturing activity appears to have dissipated, while construction activity accelerated... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) All the main activity indicators undershot consensus expectations in July, with most either stagnant or barely expanding in m/m terms. And with financial troubles at developers such as Country Garden... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Aug.) The PBOC has lowered its policy rates for the second time in three months, amid growing concerns among policymakers about the health of China’s economy. A larger-than-usual MLF cut had hinted at a... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) China’s bank loan growth fell to its lowest in seven months in July, while broad credit growth dropped to a record low. We expect further policy rate cuts and a spike in government bond issuance in... 11th August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) CPI joined PPI in deflationary territory last month. But this was due to a sharp drop in food inflation caused by base effects. More importantly, core inflation rose to its highest since January and... 9th August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Trade (Jul.) Chinese exports contracted in July by the most since the start of the pandemic. But the recent declines mostly reflect lower prices rather than volumes, which are still well above their pre-pandemic... 8th August 2023 · 3 mins read
