China Rapid Response China PMIs (Apr. 2024) While the Caixin services PMI edged down last month, it dropped by less than its official counterpart, and the survey data for April is still consistent with some improvement in momentum since the... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q1) & Activity (Mar. 2024) Stronger-than-expected official GDP figures indicate that China’s economy gained momentum in Q1, thanks to policy support. But monthly activity data suggest that this policy-driven recovery is shaky... 16th April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Mar. 2024) Despite a larger-than-expected y/y fall in export values, export volumes climbed to record highs. Nonetheless, we still think export volumes will grow more slowly this year than they did in 2023... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar. 2024) CPI inflation rose less than expected in March but is still trending upwards. We think an easing of food price deflation and the ongoing modest economic recovery will support a slow reflation in the... 11th April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Mar. 2024) Sizeable rises in the PMIs in March are consistent with improved economic momentum and/or the easing of sentiment effects that have weighed on the surveys recently. Either way, they add to wider... 1st April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb. 2024) China’s economy continued to show some improvement at the start of the year thanks to strength in exports and fiscal stimulus, even as consumer spending made little headway. We expect the recovery to... 18th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb. 2024) CPI inflation turned positive last month for the first time since September, thanks to temporary factors such as the volatility in food and tourism prices around Lunar New Year. But persistent... 11th March 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jan. & Feb. 2024) China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since May, with export volumes reaching a record high. We doubt the sustainability of this strength, however, since exporters now have more limited... 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Feb. 2024) The PMIs are consistent with activity holding steady in February, at least on paper. Although the survey readings remain below historical averages, this is likely distorted by sentiment effects --... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Feb.) Today’s 25bp cut to the 5-year LPR is clearly aimed at supporting the housing market. On its own it will not revive new home sales. But coupled with efforts to provide increased credit support to... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan) There was the usual seasonal surge in net credit in China in January that took new bank lending to a record high. The underlying story is less positive, with loan demand little changed and broader... 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) CPI fell deeper into deflationary territory last month. But this was largely due to the usual volatility in food and tourism prices around Chinese New Year. We think consumer price inflation will... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s growth picked up only marginally in Q4, underperforming most expectations. And although we foresee some further upside as foreign visitors and workers continue to return, we think the... 31st January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Jan.) There were some gains in economic momentum at the start of 2024, at least judging by the modest rise in the PMIs. Admittedly, the survey readings are still depressed by historic standards, but this... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
