China Rapid Response China PMIs (Oct. 2024) The PMIs have overstated the weakness in China’s economy during the past year. But they still provide some sense of the direction of travel. The good news is that the surveys point to an improvement... 31st October 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Loan Prime Rate (Oct. 2024) Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) continue the PBOC’s efforts to support the economy. We expect additional easing to follow in the coming quarters, but this... 21st October 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep. 2024) After slowing in Q2, the economy regained some momentum last quarter. A boost from fiscal stimulus should help narrowly meet the annual growth target this year and support activity in the coming... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Despite monetary easing and a pick-up in government bond issuance, both broad credit and bank loan growth hit fresh lows in September. While the PBOC will continue to loosen policy, this is unlikely... 14th October 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Sep. 2024) Export growth slowed last month but remained resilient, with volumes still rising at a double-digit pace. We think shipments will stay strong in the near term, supported by gains in export... 14th October 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep. 2024) CPI inflation fell in September, as an increase in food inflation was outweighed by further decreases in energy and core inflation. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened further on the back of... 14th October 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Sep. 2024) While the official PMIs held up okay in September, the Caixin PMIs dropped quite sharply which suggests that the economy lost some momentum this month. The stimulus package announced last week thus... 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Sep. 24) The readout of the Politburo’s quarterly meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It acknowledges that new problems have emerged in the Chinese economy recently and calls... 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Stimulus package a step in the right direction In a departure from their previous approach of drip-feeding piecemeal support measures, China’s financial regulators have just announced a coordinated package of stimulus measures. This is a step in... 24th September 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Policy Rates (Sep. 2024) The lack of any reduction to policy rates today, despite the clear economic case for doing so, underscores the extent to which the PBOC remains constrained by concerns about bank profitability and... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Aug. 2024) Activity growth slowed last month, falling short of expectations across the board. The service sector is still faring reasonably well and the fiscal support that’s already in the pipeline should help... 16th September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Both broad credit and bank loan growth slowed in August, coming in below expectations. (See Chart 1.) While stronger government spending should give the economy a boost over the coming months, that... 13th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Aug. 2024) Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in 17 months, with export volumes hitting record highs. We expect exports to remain robust in the near term, supported by the decline in China’s real... 10th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug. 2024) Despite a weather-related surge in vegetable prices, a fall in energy prices and core inflation meant CPI only rose a touch. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened on the back of worsening... 9th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Aug. 2024) The PMIs for August suggest that economic momentum held broadly steady last month, with modest improvements in manufacturing helping to offset a further slowdown in construction activity. But with... 2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response PBOC buys bonds today but will be selling soon The PBOC has just revealed that it purchased RMB400bn of government bonds from primary dealers today. This might seem like an odd move given that the central bank has spent recent months trying to... 29th August 2024 · 2 mins read
