China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Broad credit growth continued to rise in November thanks to a pick-up in government bond issuance, but it still came in below expectations. We think further policy support is on the way, but this is... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) CPI fell deeper into deflationary territory last month. The main culprit continues to be food and energy prices – the rate of core inflation held steady and remains positive. Services inflation, the... 11th December 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Merchandise Trade (Nov.) China’s export values rose year-on-year for the first time since May while the level of export volumes hit a fresh high, supported by exporters reducing prices. We doubt this robustness will persist... 7th December 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Nov.) Taken at face value, the PMIs suggest that the economy made some headway in November. However, they still point to a marked slowdown in recent months. That may not be the case in practice – the hard... 30th November 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) Retail sales and industrial output remained resilient at the start of Q4. Fixed investment is still fairly subdued while tentative signs of improvement in the property sector appears to have fizzled... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) CPI slipped back into deflationary territory last month. This was mostly due to a drop in food inflation. But core inflation declined too, adding to evidence of renewed economic weakness. Nonetheless... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Merchandise Trade (Oct.) The year-on-year contraction in export values deepened last month. But this was mainly due to lower export prices. Export volumes were little changed after hitting a record high in September. We doubt... 7th November 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy largely treaded water in Q3, underperforming most expectations. A jump in investment and a pick-up in government spending barely offset further struggles in the trade logistics... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Oct.) The PMI surveys were unexpectedly weak across the board, with the composite measure falling to its lowest in eight years outside of COVID lockdowns. If this slowdown is confirmed by the hard data then... 31st October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep.) According to official GDP, growth more than doubled in q/q terms between Q2 and Q3, reaching a healthy 5.3% annualised rate. Our China Activity Proxy suggests that momentum isn’t quite this strong... 18th October 2023 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) After slowing sharply in Q2, broad credit growth edged up in August and held steady last month. Although a sharp rebound seems unlikely, we do think credit growth could pick up somewhat over the... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Merchandise Trade (Sep.) China’s export values continued to contract year-on-year in September. But to the extent that foreign demand has cooled recently, it is being reflected in export prices rather than export volumes... 13th October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) PPI deflation continued to ease in September. CPI inflation edged down, but core inflation remained at a six-month high, with services inflation staying at its highest in 19 months. We expect... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Sep.) The PMI surveys suggest another month of stable economic activity in September. A continued acceleration in construction activity appears to have offset a further softening in services activity... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) Although a slight uptick in activity was expected, the August data turned out to be even better than anticipated. Fiscal support shored up investment but the real bright spot was a healthy pick-up in... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response PBOC cuts reserve requirements The People’s Bank has just announced a cut to bank reserve requirements. With private sector credit demand still weak, this is a gesture rather than a meaningful support measure. Substantial rate cuts... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
