Event

Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025?

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An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.

China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.)

Both bank lending and broad credit growth hit fresh lows in October in a sign that monetary easing hasn’t done enough to drive a substantial turnaround in private credit demand. And after last week’s...

12th November 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct. 2024)

Headline CPI and PPI inflation both fell further in October. But core inflation edged up and factory gate prices fell more slowly in m/m terms, a sign that recent stimulus efforts are having some...

11th November 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China's fiscal announcement falls short of stimulus

Today’s fiscal announcement is another disappointment for those expecting substantial stimulus.

8th November 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Oct. 2024)

Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in more than two years, and export volumes picked up too. We expect shipments to stay strong in the coming months – any drag from potential Trump tariffs may...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

China Rapid Response

Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary)

Hong Kong’s economy contracted sharply in Q3. GDP surprised significantly to the downside, with growth of 0.4% q/q in Q2 more than reversed by a 1.1% q/q fall in Q3 (Bloomberg median: +0.2%, CE: -0.2%...

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China PMIs (Oct. 2024)

The PMIs have overstated the weakness in China’s economy during the past year. But they still provide some sense of the direction of travel. The good news is that the surveys point to an improvement...

31st October 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Loan Prime Rate (Oct. 2024)

Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) continue the PBOC’s efforts to support the economy. We expect additional easing to follow in the coming quarters, but this...

21st October 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep. 2024)

After slowing in Q2, the economy regained some momentum last quarter. A boost from fiscal stimulus should help narrowly meet the annual growth target this year and support activity in the coming...

18th October 2024 · 3 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.)

Despite monetary easing and a pick-up in government bond issuance, both broad credit and bank loan growth hit fresh lows in September. While the PBOC will continue to loosen policy, this is unlikely...

14th October 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Sep. 2024)

Export growth slowed last month but remained resilient, with volumes still rising at a double-digit pace. We think shipments will stay strong in the near term, supported by gains in export...

14th October 2024 · 3 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep. 2024)

CPI inflation fell in September, as an increase in food inflation was outweighed by further decreases in energy and core inflation. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened further on the back of...

14th October 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China PMIs (Sep. 2024)

While the official PMIs held up okay in September, the Caixin PMIs dropped quite sharply which suggests that the economy lost some momentum this month. The stimulus package announced last week thus...

30th September 2024 · 3 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Politburo Meeting (Sep. 24)

The readout of the Politburo’s quarterly meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It acknowledges that new problems have emerged in the Chinese economy recently and calls...

26th September 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

Stimulus package a step in the right direction

In a departure from their previous approach of drip-feeding piecemeal support measures, China’s financial regulators have just announced a coordinated package of stimulus measures. This is a step in...

24th September 2024 · 4 mins read