China Rapid Response China GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec. 2024) The economy ended 2024 on a stronger note, thanks to tailwinds from recent policy easing. Increased fiscal spending should continue to provide a near-term prop to activity, but this won’t prevent... 17th January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Broad credit growth rebounded last month, but bank loan growth continued to hit record lows. We expect strong government bond issuance to continue supporting credit growth over the coming quarters... 14th January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Dec. 2024) Export growth rebounded last month, with both export values and volumes posting double-digit y/y gains. We expect shipments to remain strong in the coming months, as US importers continue to stockpile... 13th January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec. 2024) Headline CPI inflation fell but this was driven by weather-related volatility in food prices. More important is that core CPI and PPI both continued to pick up, adding to signs that policy stimulus is... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Dec. 2024) The PMIs suggest that China’s economy gained momentum in December, with faster growth in services and construction more than making up for slower growth in the manufacturing sector. Increased fiscal... 31st December 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Nov. 2024) China’s economy appears to have slowed last month, despite tailwinds from recent policy easing. Growth still looks on course to pick up this quarter, but the disappointing November data underscores... 16th December 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) China's November credit data show that monetary easing is still struggling to put a floor under borrowing. We doubt that the further rate cuts China’s leadership promised this week will do much to... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Nov. 2024) Export growth slowed sharply last month but we doubt this signals the end of China’s recent export boom. We expect exports to accelerate again in the coming months, supported by gains in... 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Dec. 24) The Politburo has just concluded its December meeting, which focuses foremost on economic affairs. After 14 years of monetary policy being officially characterised as “prudent”, the meeting readout... 9th December 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Nov. 2024) While the Caixin services PMI fell a touch, the composite PMI rose which is consistent with our expectation for an acceleration in q/q GDP growth this quarter. Increased fiscal spending and the front... 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Oct. 2024) China’s economy improved further at the start of Q4, thanks to stronger-than-expected consumer spending. We think faster fiscal spending will support a continued cyclical pickup in activity overing... 15th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025? 1732719600 An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Both bank lending and broad credit growth hit fresh lows in October in a sign that monetary easing hasn’t done enough to drive a substantial turnaround in private credit demand. And after last week’s... 12th November 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct. 2024) Headline CPI and PPI inflation both fell further in October. But core inflation edged up and factory gate prices fell more slowly in m/m terms, a sign that recent stimulus efforts are having some... 11th November 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China's fiscal announcement falls short of stimulus Today’s fiscal announcement is another disappointment for those expecting substantial stimulus. 8th November 2024 · 2 mins read
