China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb. 2025) China’s economy appears to have slowed last month, likely due to a pullback fiscal borrowing. We expect a renewed pick-up later this year as fiscal support ramps up again. But any near-term... 17th March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) While bank loan growth continued to slow to record lows in February, that was more than offset by stronger growth in non-bank credit. Strong government bond issuance should continue to provide a prop... 14th March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb. 2025) CPI joined PPI in deflationary territory last month for the first time in more than a year. While this was partly driven by the usual price volatility around Lunar New Year, the January-February... 10th March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jan. & Feb. 2025) Export growth cooled over the first two months of 2025, with tariff front-running providing less of a boost to demand than we had anticipated. This slowdown comes before any substantial hit from... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Initial thoughts on China’s NPC Chinese policymakers have stuck with an ambitious target for real GDP growth but have become more cautious on the outlook for nominal growth and inflation. And while they did deliver some increase in... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Feb. 2025) The PMIs suggest that a combination of fiscal support and tariff front-running helped China’s economy regain some momentum in February. But growth still looks at risk of slowing this quarter, at least... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Event China Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environment 1741161600 This year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is taking place against a difficult backdrop for China’s economy; stimulus efforts have so far had only a fleeting impact on activ
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Headline CPI inflation rose to a five-month high last month, driven by the lagged effect of stronger demand last quarter on the back of government efforts to boost consumption. But with the boost from... 10th February 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China retaliates, risking further tariff escalation After initially promising unspecified "countermeasures", the Chinese authorities have now fleshed out their retaliation to the Trump administration's 10% tariff hike on all US imports from China. The... 4th February 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jan. 2025) The Caixin services and composite PMIs released today add to growing evidence that China's economy lost momentum last month. The breakdown shows that the employment index of the Caixin composite PMI... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec. 2024) The economy ended 2024 on a stronger note, thanks to tailwinds from recent policy easing. Increased fiscal spending should continue to provide a near-term prop to activity, but this won’t prevent... 17th January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Broad credit growth rebounded last month, but bank loan growth continued to hit record lows. We expect strong government bond issuance to continue supporting credit growth over the coming quarters... 14th January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Dec. 2024) Export growth rebounded last month, with both export values and volumes posting double-digit y/y gains. We expect shipments to remain strong in the coming months, as US importers continue to stockpile... 13th January 2025 · 2 mins read
