Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Headline CPI inflation rose to a five-month high last month, driven by the lagged effect of stronger demand last quarter on the back of government efforts to boost consumption. But with the boost from... 10th February 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China retaliates, risking further tariff escalation 4th February 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jan. 2025) The Caixin services and composite PMIs released today add to growing evidence that China's economy lost momentum last month. The breakdown shows that the employment index of the Caixin composite PMI... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec. 2024) The economy ended 2024 on a stronger note, thanks to tailwinds from recent policy easing. Increased fiscal spending should continue to provide a near-term prop to activity, but this won’t prevent... 17th January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Broad credit growth rebounded last month, but bank loan growth continued to hit record lows. We expect strong government bond issuance to continue supporting credit growth over the coming quarters... 14th January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Dec. 2024) Export growth rebounded last month, with both export values and volumes posting double-digit y/y gains. We expect shipments to remain strong in the coming months, as US importers continue to stockpile... 13th January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec. 2024) Headline CPI inflation fell but this was driven by weather-related volatility in food prices. More important is that core CPI and PPI both continued to pick up, adding to signs that policy stimulus is... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Dec. 2024) The PMIs suggest that China’s economy gained momentum in December, with faster growth in services and construction more than making up for slower growth in the manufacturing sector. Increased fiscal... 31st December 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Nov. 2024) China’s economy appears to have slowed last month, despite tailwinds from recent policy easing. Growth still looks on course to pick up this quarter, but the disappointing November data underscores... 16th December 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) China's November credit data show that monetary easing is still struggling to put a floor under borrowing. We doubt that the further rate cuts China’s leadership promised this week will do much to... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Nov. 2024) Export growth slowed sharply last month but we doubt this signals the end of China’s recent export boom. We expect exports to accelerate again in the coming months, supported by gains in... 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Dec. 24) The Politburo has just concluded its December meeting, which focuses foremost on economic affairs. After 14 years of monetary policy being officially characterised as “prudent”, the meeting readout... 9th December 2024 · 3 mins read
