Africa Economics Update Can South Africa’s banks weather the Covid fallout? The economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis is likely to push bad loans in South Africa’s banking sector to levels that trigger a round of recapitalisations, which could further increase the... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South African lockdown causing activity to collapse Early evidence suggests that the coronavirus and South Africa’s lockdown measures are taking a heavy toll on the economy and supports our view that the economy will decline sharply over the year as a... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s lockdown to give way to slow recovery Even after further easing of South African lockdown measures last week, a quarter of the economy remains closed. And the impact of the lockdown on unemployment and insolvencies will cause long-lasting... 10th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: how low can rates go? A look at South Africa’s recent history would suggest that the monetary easing cycle has further to run. We now expect an additional 75bp of cuts in the coming months, taking the repo rate from the... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian monetary easing: better late than never We think that today’s 100bp interest rate cut by the Nigerian central bank, to 12.50%, will be followed by further loosening as economic recovery proves weaker than the central bank expects. We have... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update African debt risks: five key questions This Update answers five questions we are asked most frequently on sovereign debt risks in Sub-Saharan Africa. While there are lots of factors at play, it seems likely that governments in much of the... 26th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update End of South Africa’s easing cycle approaching South African policymakers continued to cut interest rates today, taking the repo rate down by 50bp to 3.75%, but the end of the easing cycle appears to be on the horizon. At this stage, we expect one... 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: what next for the naira? We think that Nigerian policymakers will have to allow the naira to weaken further in order to address mounting strains in the balance of payments. But hopes of a unified, flexible exchange rate... 19th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s public debt problem only getting worse South Africa’s public debt ratio will rise sharply this year and it would take an implausible degree of austerity or reduction in borrowing costs to stabilise the debt ratio in the following years. A... 12th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update African downturn and recovery paths to diverge Low-profile data suggest that the economic damage caused by lockdowns in some of the poorer economies in Africa will be more moderate than in higher-income countries. But the economic pain could be... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update A closer look at the vulnerabilities in Nigerian banks One consequence of the current crisis is that bad loans in Nigeria’s banking sector are likely to rise sharply. While the government would surely respond to problems at individual banks with capital... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil producers heading into deeper crises The plunge in global oil prices has raised the risk of much steeper contractions in output in African oil producers, sharper currency falls, sovereign debt restructurings and problems at local banks. 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update First thoughts on South Africa’s fiscal package The 10% of GDP emergency fiscal response announced by South Africa’s president last night will help to alleviate some of the strains in the economy caused by the lockdown. But with this coming one... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: data gap can be bridged for now South Africa’s ongoing three-week lockdown means the statistics agency won’t be publishing or collecting data during this time. In this Update, we explain what other data we should look at, what would... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can lockdowns work in Africa? An increasing number of African governments have imposed lockdowns in an effort to fight Covid-19, but we think the risk that such restrictive measures fail to contain the outbreak is bigger in the... 6th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: debt restructuring wave to sweep the region The coronavirus and low commodity prices are putting pressure on most African economies’ balance of payments positions and pushing many sovereigns closer to default. Besides Zambia, which is already... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
