Africa Economics Update South Africa: Risk of contraction in Q3 Weak industrial figures for August present the very real risk that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q3. Even if growth remained positive, the recovery seen in Q2 has clearly faded. 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: Election clouds robust growth outlook Côte d’Ivoire’s upcoming elections in 2020 raise political risks facing the economy. But our core view is that the vote will pass peacefully, and that looser fiscal policy combined with more... 8th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Economy weathers drought Kenya’s economy remained weak in Q2, but there are signs that the key agricultural sector has held up pretty well given this year’s drought. With the drag from the sector easing, GDP growth will pick... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: More fragile than it looks Ethiopia’s investment-focused economic model has attracted widespread praise, but has also created dangerous external vulnerabilities. Were domestic instability or EM-wide risk aversion to cause... 26th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Budget plan underlines fiscal problems Nigeria’s latest budget plan has strengthened our view that the fiscal position is unsustainable and that the country will face some kind of debt crisis within five years. 25th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB: Window for a cut closed, rates will be on hold Given policymakers’ decision to keep their key rate on hold at 6.50% today, we now think that South African interest rates will remain unchanged over the coming quarters. Policymakers do not seem... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recovery loses momentum Activity data for July suggest that South Africa’s recovery lost steam at the start of Q3. We remain comfortable with our below-consensus growth forecast of 0.5% for this year as a whole. 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recovery already waning Despite the slight improvement in the manufacturing sector, the batch of activity figures for July suggests that South Africa’s economic recovery in Q2 faded at the start of Q3. This adds to reasons... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: large CA deficit points to slowdown ahead Uganda’s balance of payments position is looking increasingly unsustainable. The currency is likely to weaken and domestic demand is set to slow. We think that GDP growth will be a lot weaker than... 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Q2 rebound, but underlying growth weak South Africa’s economy made a surprisingly strong recovery in Q2, growing by 3.1% q/q saar, but growth remained weak at a year-on-year rate. Given soft demand and low petrol prices, we expect that... 3rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Economy stuck in second gear Disappointing Q2 GDP figures out today underlined the weakness of Nigeria’s economy. This supported our below-consensus view that growth will remain trapped at around 2% in 2019 and 2020. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Treasury plan puts pressure on president The unexpected release of economic reform proposals by South Africa’s treasury is probably an attempt to push the president to announce a more ambitious plan at October’s budget speech. The plan... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Despite drought, next rate move will be a cut Kenya’s drought will probably push inflation above the CBK’s target range in Q4. But bank will likely look through this spike, as it did in 2017. We think the next rate move will be a 50bp cut in Q4... 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Low oil prices mean focused pain & diffuse benefits The fall in oil prices this month will create both winners and losers in Africa. But the winners’ gains will be small and spread across dozens of countries, whereas pain will be concentrated in a few... 20th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria FX ban: Little price effect, big hit CBN credibility The Nigerian president’s call to exclude all food importers from the official FX market will probably be poorly-enforced and have little effect on inflation. But the government’s ever-expanding... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Tanzania: Growth set to slow After picking up a touch this year, we think that economic growth in Tanzania will slow in 2020 and in 2021. President John Magufuli’s increasingly erratic policymaking will deter investment while... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
