Africa Economics Update CBN: economic weakness reigns supreme Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to lower the benchmark rate, from 12.50% to 11.50%, shows that policymakers have put aside their concerns about inflation and are increasingly... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB easing cycle probably over, rates to stay low Today’s decision by South African Reserve Bank’s to keep its benchmark rate unchanged probably means that further easing is unlikely to materialise. Even so, monetary conditions are likely to remain... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update More signs of a bumpy recovery in South Africa Activity data released today suggest that the pace of South Africa’s economic recovery had already started to slow in July. Taken together with a terrible Q2 GDP outturn, we think that this will give... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pandemic pulse: The latest on Africa The recent drop in new Covid-19 cases in much of Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to encourage policymakers to further relax restrictions on economic activity, which will give a leg up to recoveries. 9th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa and the impact of weaker remittances Remittances to Africa appear to have held up fairly well so far but this is unlikely to be sustained. Weaker inflows will drag on economic recoveries and add to balance of payments strains in many... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pressure on the Kenyan shilling to persist Kenya’s current account deficit will probably widen in the coming quarters and could reach as much as 6.5% of GDP over this year as a whole. We expect the shilling to continue to depreciate against... 25th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: lockdown easing, but clouds hang over outlook The announcement over the weekend that South Africa is further easing containment measures will probably give a much-needed boost to activity as much of the economy is allowed to reopen. But it looks... 17th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics SA suffers one of the world's worst downturns in Q2 The hard activity data from South Africa released this week confirm that the country suffered one of the largest falls in output in Q2 anywhere in the world, at around 22% q/q (63% q/q on an... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB under pressure Growing pressure on South Africa’s Reserve Bank (SARB) to do more to support the economy and finance the government is unlikely to result in a major shift in policymaking over the next year or two... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB cautious, but still scope for further easing Divisions on South Africa’s MPC suggest that some policymakers are keen for the easing cycle to be brought to an end following today’s 25bp cut (to 3.50%). And that seems to be the view priced into... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s monetary easing on pause… for now Following today’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, we think that Nigerian policymakers will cut interest rates once more this year as inflation stabilises and the economic recovery proves... 20th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Taking stock of Africa’s Covid crisis The number of coronavirus cases has continued to rise sharply in South Africa, making it more likely that the government will tighten containment measures, which would add to reasons to expect a slow... 15th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA manufacturing sector one of the worst hit across EMs Hard activity data from South Africa confirm that the economy has been among the hardest hit across major EMs by the coronavirus crisis and, while the lockdown has been eased in recent months, we... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update What next for inflation in South Africa? Weak core inflation is likely to keep the headline rate in South Africa close to the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range both this year and next. This should allow the central bank to keep... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing the damage to tourism sectors in Africa Tourism sectors across Africa, like much of the rest of the world, are at a standstill and any recovery is likely to be slow going. Even if travel restrictions are lifted international tourists are... 25th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s debt woes tie policymakers’ hands South Africa’s emergency budget highlighted that the dire state of the public finances is limiting the scope for fiscal support this year and attention is already focused on dealing with the legacy of... 24th June 2020 · 4 mins read
