Africa Economics Update SA: further weakness to follow mixed May activity data South Africa’s hard activity data for May painted a picture of a bumpy recovery in Q2, as retail sales grew strongly but industrial sectors showed signs of weakness. With tighter virus containment... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the unrest in South Africa There is clearly a lot of uncertainty over how the protests in South Africa in recent days will develop but there are reasons to think that the impact on economic activity will be towards the milder... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: little hit from tighter restrictions, SARB to stay dovish The further tightening of virus containment measures in South Africa for at least the next two weeks is unlikely to inflict severe damage on the economy. But it reinforces our view that the Reserve... 28th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: mixed industry performance to converge to weakness South African hard activity data for April painted a mixed picture about the rebound in the mining and manufacturing sectors. By and large, though, the economy is in for a slow and bumpy recovery. 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN keeps inflation-fighting tools on the shelf Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting, opting to emphasise the fragile nature of the economic recovery over elevated inflation. With price... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery to remain stuck in first gear The pick-up in Nigeria’s GDP growth in Q1 was driven in large part by the oil sector and rising oil output will support a further acceleration in growth over the coming quarters. But FX restrictions... 24th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Vaccine supplies drying up, delaying recoveries Sub-Saharan Africa’s already slow vaccination campaigns received another blow with news this week that a key supplier, India’s Serum Institute, is delaying shipments further. African policymakers will... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB laying seeds of policy normalisation Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today, while laying the foundations for normalising monetary policy. We think that rate hikes are some time off as the Reserve... 20th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: mixed March data point to a small Q1 expansion South Africa’s hard activity data for March showed a strong rebound in industrial sectors while the retail sector struggled. Over Q1 as a whole, GDP probably managed to expand by about 1.5% q/q on an... 19th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Gains from commodity price moves to flame out African economies have benefitted from the rally in commodity prices in recent months, but we think that most of the gains from the terms of trade improvements are behind us. In the coming quarters... 18th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: industry strength unlikely to last South African hard activity data for March paint a bright picture of the recovery in the mining and manufacturing sectors. The easing of lockdown measures combined with favourable base effects are... 13th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique’s natural gas dreams evaporating? Security problems in Mozambique are putting huge natural gas investment projects at risk, clouding the country’s otherwise bright economic outlook while reigniting default concerns. 12th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Fly in the ointment of strong SA survey data Recently released survey data from South Africa point to a marked improvement in economic conditions but there were further signs that firms are suffering from supply chain disruptions. What’s more... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery back on (a slow) track South Africa’s hard activity data for February show that the recovery resumed following a January slump on the back of a second virus wave. While the economy will probably finish Q1 on a stronger note... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s banks weathering the storm The COVID-19 crisis has caused bad loans at South Africa’s banks to rise, but the impact so far has not been as bad as feared. That said, the hit to profitability in the banking sector, combined with... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s manufacturing sector: a crawling recovery The road to recovery in South Africa’s manufacturing sector will probably be slow and bumpy. Weak domestic demand and persistent power cuts will act as key headwinds, although export-oriented sectors... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
