As the much-anticipated start of Fed easing approaches, the debate has centred on whether Powell & Co. will opt for a 25 or a 50-basis point rate cut.
On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses the rationale for a larger move, but also explains why we’re expecting this easing cycle to begin with a 25bps move.
With financial markets bouncing around on this question and Senior Markets Economist James Reilly is also on the show to talk about our new interactive dashboard which takes more than six decades of Fed and market data to give investors a clear guide to how major asset prices will respond to monetary easing.
Finally, Simon MacAdam, our Deputy Chief Global Economist, is also on to discuss another new data product which is designed to give investors single, comparable indicators of whether DM economies are facing recession risk. He tells Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis what the indicators are saying about the recession risks faced by the US and German economies.
Analysis and Data Dashboards referenced in this episode:
Report: Rate cuts and asset returns
Dashboard: Rate Cuts & Asset Returns
Report: How to gauge recession risk in DMs
Dashboard: Composite Economic Momentum Indicators