This week we expect to learn that, rather than edging up by 0.2% annualised as the first estimate indicated, first-quarter GDP contracted by 0.7%. The principal reason for the revision is that net external trade was a bigger drag than the BEA originally assumed. The West Coast port data on container shipments suggest that imports fell back sharply in April, however, while the trade data published by China indicates that US imports could fall further in May and June too.
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