The dollar’s near 20% rise since mid-2014 has slowed the growth rates of both manufacturing output and employment, but there is no sign of any collapse that could drag down the wider economy. The manufacturing surveys remain particularly downbeat, but actual output and employment continue to grind higher. Nevertheless, even if manufacturing is still managing to avoid recession, there is little prospect of any meaningful recovery any time soon. Global demand remains weak and the impact of currency shifts can take a couple of years to fully feed through into activity.
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