The evidence of a seasonal quirk in the first-quarter GDP growth figures is pretty overwhelming. The same skewed pattern appears to have repeated itself this year too, with the 0.7% contraction in GDP not matched by GDI, which actually expanded by 1.4%. More generally, we doubt that real GDP growth is being systematically under-estimated, either because inflation is being overestimated or because non-monetary or intangible activity is being excluded.
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