We think the sharp slowdown in employment growth in August and broader signs of weakness in the incoming activity data mean the Fed will hold off formally announcing a QE taper at its September meeting. The tapering discussion will take centre stage, but we are just as interested in the updated economic projections which will include 2024 for the first time. The latter will provide a guide to how quickly Fed officials see rates returning to neutral once conditions for lift-off have been met.
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