Fed Watch

Fed Watch is your source of expert analysis on what the Federal Reserve will do next. Published a week ahead of the next FOMC meeting, this publication walks you through how policymakers are likely to respond to changes in the US economy and guide US interest rates. Fed Watch is just part of the analysis, data products and economist engagement services we provide to keep investors ahead of the curve.

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US Fed Watch

Fed to continue with gradual policy normalisation

We expect the Fed to cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, to between 4.25% and 4.50%, and to continue projecting that the fed funds rate will eventually end up close...

11th December 2024 9 mins read

US Fed Watch

25bp will be the new normal

With the economy on strong ground, we expect the Fed to shift to a more gradual pace of easing, cutting interest rates by 25bp at each meeting until rates reach 3.00-3.25%. The outcome of next week’s...

31st October 2024 8 mins read

US Fed Watch

Fed to kick off loosening cycle with a 25bp cut

With the labour market data more consistent with an economic slowdown rather than a collapse, we think the Fed will begin its rate cutting cycle with a measured 25bp reduction at next week’s FOMC...

11th September 2024 9 mins read

US Fed Watch

Fed warming up to a September rate cut

With the disinflationary trend broadening out and the unemployment rate rising, recent comments from Fed officials suggest that the FOMC is on track to cut interest rates in September. While the...

24th July 2024 9 mins read

US Fed Watch

Fed to stand pat

With no prospect of the Fed adjusting policy next week, the focus of the FOMC meeting will be the new SEP forecasts. The “dots” are likely to cluster around one or two interest rate cuts this year...

5th June 2024 8 mins read

US Fed Watch

Cuts delayed rather than cancelled

The recent run of stronger inflation and activity data has unsurprisingly shaken the Fed’s confidence that inflation is on track to return to the 2% target. In that environment, we expect the May FOMC...

24th April 2024 5 mins read

US Fed Watch

Better inflation data needed for June rate cut

Data dependence will remain the order of the day at next week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed officials likely to leave their interest rate projections broadly unchanged and signal that they are still...

13th March 2024 8 mins read

US Fed Watch

March rate cut is data dependent

At next week’s FOMC meeting, we don’t expect the Fed to hint at upcoming rate cuts and it may even maintain its tightening bias in the accompanying statement. Frankly, everything depends on the...

24th January 2024 8 mins read

Trump's second term

Key insight into how the re-election of Donald Trump could reshape the global economy and markets

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