We think that the coming fiscal stimulus will raise annual GDP growth by about 0.6ppts this year and 0.25ppts in 2021. This is part of the reason why we expect GDP growth to beat the consensus forecast by rising to 1.8% in 2021 and helps to explain our view that the Monetary Policy Committee won’t cut rates this year, and will raise them from 0.75% to 1.00% in 2021.
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