The economy has built up a fair bit of immunity to lockdowns, as November’s second COVID-19 lockdown was much less painful for the economy than the first lockdown in March/April of last year. The same is probably true of the current third lockdown. As a result, the COVID-19 economic hole is smaller than we thought, the economy may get back to its pre-crisis crisis level a bit sooner and it makes us more confident that the Bank of England probably won’t resort to negative interest rates.
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