UK Data Response UK Monthly GDP (Apr. 2023) The 0.2% m/m rise in real GDP in April, following March’s 0.3% m/m contraction will further raise hopes that the economy will escape a recession this year. But the rise in GDP is not as good as it... 14th June 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2023) The labour market became tighter in April and wage growth reaccelerated. That will only add to the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates further at the policy meeting next Thursday... 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response UK Money & Credit (Apr. 2023) While the £7.3bn rebound in total UK bank deposits in April followed the £16.1bn decline in March and suggests that concerns over the stability of UK banks have faded, the more interesting development... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr. 2023) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in April suggests that higher interest rates are not yet taking a toll on spending. While the worst of the declines in retail sales volumes are in the past... 26th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr. 2023) The Bank of England won’t be able to ignore the smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in April and the rebound in core inflation to a new 31-year high. We now think it will raise interest rates... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (May 2023) May’s PMIs suggest that economic growth is being supported by the services sector while manufacturing activity continues to contract. The strength in services activity may be supporting persistent... 23rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public finances (Apr.) April’s public finances figures got the new fiscal year off to a shaky start. But we doubt this will prevent the Chancellor from embarking on a fiscal splurge ahead of the next general election, due... 23rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Mar./Apr.) The labour market loosened by a bit more than the Bank of England expected in March. That may alleviate some pressure on the Bank to raise rates above 4.50% at the next policy meeting in June. 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Mar. & Q1) The news that the economy contracted by 0.3% m/m in March and grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q1 as a whole (consensus +0.1% q/q, Bank of England 0.0% q/q, CE +0.1% q/q) suggests that lower real household... 12th May 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Mar.) March’s money and credit data showed that the collapse of the US bank SVB and the takeover of Credit Suisse in early March triggered a small withdrawal of funds from the overall UK banking system... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Mar.) The news that total borrowing in 2022/23 was £13.2bn lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted only a month ago provides the Chancellor with more wiggle room to cut taxes and/or... 25th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s flash PMIs suggest the economy is still proving resilient to the dual drags of high inflation and high interest rates going into Q2. That, alongside evidence suggesting that domestic... 21st April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Underlying retail sales volumes aren’t as soggy as the 0.9% m/m drop in March suggests as some of that fall was due to the unusually wet weather. The further rebound in consumer confidence in April... 21st April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Plunging energy price inflation will soon drag down CPI inflation more significantly, but the stubbornness of core inflation suggests that the fight against inflation is lasting longer than the... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb./Mar.) The labour market became a bit less tight in February and wage growth continued to ease, albeit slowly. That leaves the Bank of England with a tough call on whether to raise interest rates further... 18th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP (Feb.) The stagnation in real GDP in February means the economy probably avoided recession in Q1. But it also increases the chances that the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates further to... 13th April 2023 · 4 mins read
