The tentative evidence that the recent weakening in economic activity is filtering through into a slightly looser labour market may push the Bank of England a little closer to raising interest rates by 25bps on Thursday rather than by 50bps. But with the Fed seemingly on the cusp of announcing a blockbuster 75bps hike tonight and the pound having already weakened to $1.22, we’re sticking to our forecast of a 50bps hike from 1.00% to 1.50%. But it’s going to be mighty close. We’re discussing all this in a live “Drop In” webinar at 3pm BST today. (Register here.)
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