The fall in oil prices, a souring in global market sentiment, weaker wage data and some unfavourable revisions to GDP growth suggest that the chances of rates not rising until the second half of the year have risen. Indeed, we now only expect one hike this year. But with inflation set to rebound in spring, and the economy to weather renewed fiscal austerity and the impending EU referendum well, we think that markets may have gone too far in expecting no rate rise at all this year.
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