Retail has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis and lasting changes to online spending will bring further pain. While our estimates suggest that the impact is likely to be less severe than structural change in offices, the rental outlook is expected to remain weak and a faster online transition will reinforce this. In the longer term, we expect the sector will continue to underperform, though how much will vary between markets and will be driven by both online migration and other market conditions. Overall, the UK is most exposed, along with a few European markets, while the US may also be vulnerable later in the decade.
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