Nordic and Swiss equities have generally performed very well this year, but prospects differ significantly between countries. We expect Norwegian equities to outperform over the next 18 months as oil prices rise, but Swedish equities to struggle next year as the Riksbank tightens policy.
On the face of it, the outlook for growth bodes well for equities in Iceland and Sweden. By the end of 2019, we forecast Iceland’s GDP to have risen by about 8% from its current level, and Sweden’s to have risen by more than 6%. By contrast, we think that Norway and Finland will underperform. Both countries are recovering from downturns in previously-dominant sectors (oil and gas for Norway, and electronics for Finland), and it will take time for new sectors to take their place.
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