While the Riksbank largely stuck to its dovish stance this morning, the fact that three of the six members of the Executive Board entered reservations and favoured reducing the size of the balance sheet this year leaves the direction of policy on a knife edge. We think that the trio of hawks will soon be in the ascendency, and that a repo rate hike in late 2022 is still more likely than not.
Drop-In (10 February, 11:30 GMT): The Riksbank’s dovish stance looks increasingly untenable in a world of policy tightening, but how far will it go to embrace the hawkishness of its peers? David Oxley and Jonas Goltermann will be online to discuss the Swedish monetary policy outlook following the latest statement this morning. Registration details.
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