Brazilian inflation remained well below the central bank’s target last month, at 2.4% y/y, confirming that price pressures are soft and supporting our view that the Selic rate will stay low for a long time. Elsewhere, the rise in inflation in Mexico last month, to 4.0% y/y, might reinforce Banxico’s increasingly cautious stance, but we still expect further monetary easing (including a 25bp cut at its meeting later this month).
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