We doubt the recent rallies in global bond and equity markets will be sustained over the remainder of the year. While we no longer think the 10-year US Treasury yield will exceed its June peak, we still expect it to rise as the Fed delivers a bit more tightening than investors now seem to anticipate. And we think government bond yields elsewhere will increase for similar reasons. We expect that, combined with a deteriorating economic backdrop, to place renewed pressure on “risky” assets; we forecast major benchmark equity indices – in both developed and emerging markets – to fall further this year, and expect corporate bond spreads to widen. But next year we think both “safe” and risky assets will fare a bit better, as central banks transition to easing mode and the economic backdrop starts to improve.
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