The euro-zone economy behaved largely as we anticipated in 2014, with growth remaining distinctly sluggish, inflation falling, the ECB forced into more policy action and the euro weakening. The biggest surprise, perhaps, was the extent to which the bond markets turned Japanese.
It is hard to imagine 2015 being very different. But with major uncertainties in the form of the global environment, the evolution of Greece’s political situation, the Fed’s likely actions and the scale and power of ECB quantitative easing – to name but a few – it would be no surprise if next year turned out to be rather less predictable.
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