Over the past week, the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) has used above-target and rising inflation to justify further measures to tighten monetary policy. However, we think the threat of a disorderly balance of payments adjustment has been the major concern and that monetary tightening is primarily aimed at shoring up the lira. If anything, more tightening is on the cards and we expect the ensuing clampdown on domestic demand to push Turkey into a recession this year.
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