The accompanying statement to today’s MPC meeting in Russia, at which the repo rate was left unchanged, was decidedly cautious and it’s clear that policymakers are waiting for firmer signs that inflation is easing. CPI figures published over the coming month will be crucial in determining the timing of rate cuts. For our part, we do think that inflation will fall substantially in Q1 and a rate cut (albeit a small one) in January is a possibility.
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