This morning’s 25bps cut in Russian interest rates may help to stem some of the upward pressure on the ruble but it is unlikely to do much to spur lending. What’s more, if oil prices fall back this year, as we expect, near-term concerns about currency strength are likely to give way to worries about currency weakness. Accordingly, there remains a real risk that monetary policy could actually be tightened over the course of this year.
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