Q2 GDP data showed that while domestic demand is still contracting, a boom in exports has kept the Turkish economy out of recession. Admittedly, it looks like the economy has weakened in Q3, while concerns about a large external financing requirement persist. Even so, while growth in Turkey over the next year or so is likely to be disappointing, the recent improvement in global risk appetite following central bank action in the developed world means that – for now at least – a hard landing seems unlikely.
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