The 2.2% y/y fall in Turkish industrial production in January was distorted a little by base effects, but even so the data highlight the extent to which the economy is struggling. The consensus view that the Turkish economy will grow by over 3% this year looks unduly optimistic. Elsewhere, although Czech inflation was stronger-than-expected last month, at +0.1% y/y, core inflation dipped into negative territory. As a result, we continue to think that the National Bank will shift its exchange rate ceiling to a weaker rate at this month’s MPC meeting.
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