The central bank in Vietnam (SBV) should set interest rates for May over the next few days and will probably keep the base rate on hold at 8.00%. Monetary policy has been effectively tightened in recent weeks by the large move up in commercial bank lending rates, while annual inflation eased in April. We still expect inflation to accelerate again in coming months and that the base rate will move up further. But we have toned down the forecast and now anticipate a further tightening of 200bp, rather than 400bp.
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