September data and Q3 GDP published over the last few days show that the economy in Vietnam is picking up speed. This contrasts with just about everywhere else in ASEAN where growth is losing rather than gaining momentum. But in Vietnam’s case this is a cause for concern not a reason to celebrate. Growth is too dependent on state-sector led investment, inflation will probably remain too high, while balance of payments concerns will likely linger. The exchange rate looks set to slip further against the US dollar, and Ho Chi Minh City stocks are cheap for a reason.
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