The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today, as expected. The RBNZ appears to share our view that the durability of the GDP upswing, after an improvement over the next few quarters, is very uncertain. The official cash rate (OCR) will still probably move up next year, but New Zealand will be one of the last in Asia to hike; we forecast from Q3 2010.
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