We continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent, currently $119, to fall back to $85 by the end of the year. This forecast is based largely on persistent sluggishness in demand, a stronger dollar, and increased nervousness in financial markets. But another downside risk, which is perhaps not receiving enough attention, is that the premium for unrest in the Middle East could be about to drop sharply.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services