The monthly US employment report can often trigger large movements in global commodity prices. April’s data, released today, have so far been an exception. Nonetheless, the numbers support our view that the stagnation in the US economy in the first quarter was only temporary and that the Fed will still raise interest rates later in the year. This should provide renewed support to the US currency. In isolation, a stronger dollar would generally be negative for commodity prices, but the backdrop of a robust US recovery could at least partly offset this.
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