This week we expect to learn that monthly real GDP increased by a muted 0.1% m/m in April. Given that GDP contracted in both February and March, however, that would represent a disappointing rebound. Furthermore, we are braced for a potentially big drop off in GDP in May, when raging wildfires forced the closure of a significant chunk of oil sands output for most of that month. Even allowing for a rapid bounce-back in energy output in June, we suspect that second-quarter GDP will contract by close to 1.0% annualised.
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