Prime Minister Scott Morrison revealed this week that vaccinations are now likely to start in February rather than in March. And based on the government’s ambitious timeline we think the elderly and other vulnerable people could be vaccinated by early May, which would allow any domestic restrictions to be lifted. With new outbreaks prompting lockdowns and restrictions in Sydney and Brisbane that would be a welcome development. We are also sticking to our view that the border will reopen by the middle of the year. The upshot is that we still expect GDP to recover faster than the consensus.
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