US Commercial Property Chart Pack Price correction gathering pace While the recent economic data have surprised on the upside, property market indicators were broadly worse than expected in Q4. Occupier demand softened, particularly in the office and apartment... 17th February 2023 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Slow recovery in sales and further falls in prices Housing market activity is likely to recover only gradually from its current lows, which means we think 2023 will be the weakest year for sales since 2012. Affordability will remain stretched by past... 10th February 2023 · 18 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growing signs affordability will constrain rental demand We expect stretched affordability and rising unemployment to lead to an increase in rental arrears and evictions in the coming quarters, causing rental household formation to turn negative and... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Dec.) Despite the solid payrolls data for December, there was a clear softening in employment growth in several large metros. But those that have performed the best since the pandemic continue to outperform... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Signs of a trough in housing demand There are growing signs that housing market activity may be close to a trough. The decline in mortgage rates over the past couple of months has led to a small improvement in affordability and a rise... 12th January 2023 · 9 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Nashville tops updated ranking of remote worker metros Our updated remote worker metro ranking shows some important changes since the end of the pandemic, though the winners remain in the South. Nashville tops the table, having climbed seven places... 11th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Six key calls for US commercial real estate in 2023 Our key calls for 2023 highlight major shifts in the outlook for real estate. We expect all-property total returns to be negative for the first time since 2009. At a sector level, we expect retail to... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How did our key calls for 2022 fare? While our forecast that the economy would slow in 2022 on the back of high inflation and Fed policy tightening was right, like every other forecaster we were surprised by its extent. This threw off... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern lead to narrow We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of... 29th December 2022 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales to remain weak, despite fall in mortgage rates A fall in mortgage rates from 20-year highs supported the first rise in home purchase demand in eight months in November. Given that mortgage rates are likely to continue to trend lower from here... 14th December 2022 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Update Demand for all housing tenures to drop back Our forecast for a drop in house prices means renting looks a better option than buying for any holding period under 10 years. While this will encourage some potential buyers to rent instead, we doubt... 2nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Oct.) Total employment grew across the 30 metros, but at a slower pace as labour market conditions continued to ease. With our proprietary indicators pointing to a 90% probability of an imminent recession... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Downturn starting to weigh on West Coast markets Third quarter data showed growing evidence of a softening in tenant demand in many metros. In particular, demand appears to be slowing in a number of West Coast markets, as hybrid and remote work... 29th November 2022 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value falls set to accelerate The sharp rise in Treasury yields this year has finally begun to feed through to the property data. Q3 investment activity fell by more than 20% on both a q/q and y/y basis, with loan originations... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) Single-family starts fell to 855,000 annualised in October which was much stronger than what was implied by the low level of homebuilder confidence. We expect further declines in new home sales to... 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rental market conditions begin to ease The small increase in vacancy in Q3 supports our view that the rental market is turning a corner and makes us increasingly confident in our call that rents will fall next year. Conditions remain... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read