US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Clear split between weak west and strong south The latest economic and property market data support the view we’ve held since last year that there would be a growing differentiation between southern and western markets. We expect that to persist... 11th July 2023 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall by another 15%, offices to fare worse The effects of March’s regional bank failures have yet to come through in the performance data, but transaction volumes have fallen off a cliff. Signs of distress in offices are growing as the sector... 29th June 2023 · 20 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (May.) Single-family starts saw the largest monthly increase in nearly three years in May, suggesting homebuilders have been responding to the recent rises in new home sales. We still expect a mild recession... 20th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Pause in house price declines to prove temporary The seven-month run of house price declines recently ground to a halt, with the Case-Shiller index showing an increase in prices in both February and March. This was partly driven by the temporary... 9th June 2023 · 9 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Portland, San Francisco and Seattle off to a bad start Metro level data for Q1 2023 showed the slowdown in occupier demand was widespread, with no market consistently outperforming across the sectors in terms of absorption. While office and industrial... 24th May 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Weak Q1, but bigger price falls to come in Q2 The economy has been relatively resilient so far, but with the banking turmoil set to weigh on activity, we continue to expect a recession this year. Slower growth has already translated to softer... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) In contrast to signs of a stabilisation in house prices and sales volumes in other indicators, the RICS survey remained downbeat in April. In particular, the renewed fall in the new buyer enquiries... 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market resilient to banking sector turmoil The US housing market has been largely unaffected by the banking sector turmoil. Indeed, buyer sentiment rose to an 11-month high in April and activity appears to have bottomed out. Tighter credit... 10th May 2023 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Affordability adds downside risk to big 6 apartments We think migration patterns of footloose workers will continue to play the largest role in driving the rental outlook across metros. But rent as a share of income will also have a bearing, weighing on... 9th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Takeaways from our housing roundtables Alongside the publication of our Q2 UK Housing Outlook this week, we held a series of roundtable meetings for clients in London. Here we sum up our thoughts on three key questions which recurred... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Capital values to fall 25% in San Fran, Seattle and D.C. We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy substantially higher in all markets over the next few years. That will slam the brakes on rental growth, causing an... 12th April 2023 · 13 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Office values set to tank over the next two years We have made substantial downgrades to our forecasts this quarter. Aside from their direct impact through tighter lending conditions, last month’s regional bank failures appear to be helping... 6th April 2023 · 23 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Where are the risks from US commercial real estate greatest? While we expect a more-than 20% peak-to-trough price correction for US commercial real estate, offices face a much tougher outlook, with large falls in net operating incomes compounding the broader re... 4th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jan.) January was an especially strong month for payrolls data, and this translated into positive employment growth across all 30 of the biggest metros. However, this was not the case for office-based jobs... 17th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Widespread downgrades to office-based job forecasts Our new forecasts for metro employment growth have prompted limited change in the rankings for total jobs over the next three years. But, there are two shifts, both owing much to recent and likely... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Re-pricing set to dominate rental growth differentials Data for the fourth quarter showed a widespread deterioration in occupier demand in all three sectors. This was worst in some of the big six and West coast metros, with markets like Phoenix, Portland... 22nd February 2023 · 6 mins read