US Commercial Property Outlook Another year of double-digit value falls in 2024 Persistent weak growth and elevated (albeit soon-to-be falling) interest rates continue to spell trouble for real estate values. We see NOI growth softening further over the next year as the... 15th December 2023 · 22 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack Recent falls in Treasury yields have bought mortgage rates back down from a peak of 8% in October to 7% earlier than we had anticipated, setting the scene for a recovery in housing market activity in... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 23) All-property values are down by 12.5% since mid-2022, but we expect an eventual decline of above 20%. Much of the correction at the all-property level is driven by our forecast for cap rates to go... 4th December 2023 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Falling mortgage rates won't spark major recovery Housing market activity is likely to recover from here, driven by falling mortgage rates. That said, they are set to remain high relative to recent history. Our view is that mortgage rates won’t drop... 21st November 2023 · 15 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Oct. 2023) With homebuilders encouraged by the recent surge in buyers entering the new homes market due to a lack of existing inventory, housing starts and permits edged slightly higher in October. 17th November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update 2024-27 completions to be below pre-pandemic levels With vacancy set to stay elevated, development finance remaining expensive, and values to continue falling next year, we expect construction starts will be weak in all sectors over the next 12 months... 10th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update More pain to come for first-time buyers The rise in the US homeownership rate has stalled, driven by a drop in the proportion of under-35s that own their home. That’s down to higher mortgage rates reducing the number of first-time buyers... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook West coast markets set to feel the greatest pain We expect demand to be weakest in the six major markets, but new supply is also set to be low in those markets. Elsewhere, we think southern metros will continue to see stronger absorption, though... 18th October 2023 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Sep. 2023) Single-family starts edged higher in September to 963,000 annualised from 933,000 in August and building permits also rose to a 15-month high. However, we don’t think this means single-family... 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack Surging Treasury yields have pushed mortgage rates above 7.5%, higher than we had anticipated. If these borrowing rates persist, lending and sales volumes could fall even further in the near term... 10th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Homeownership increasingly unattainable Buying a first home has become increasingly difficult over the past 30 years. A high income is still essential, but other circumstances such as whether the individual is buying as part of a joint... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall through 2024 - retail to outperform With the economy showing signs of slowing and transaction volumes likely to stay low in H2 2023, a tough 6-12 months lies in store for commercial real estate. We still expect cap rates to rise on the... 25th September 2023 · 22 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Aug.) Housing starts fell sharply across both the single-family and multifamily sectors in August, suggesting that construction has now reached a turning point. We expect this downward trend to continue for... 19th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment and single-family REIT divergence to persist The recent outperformance of single-family REITs versus apartment REITs appears to be down to differences in the capital value outlook for the sectors, rather than any major difference in rental... 15th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack With affordability stretched and the economy slowing, housing market activity is expected to remain weak over the coming quarters. While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum... 7th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2023) All-property values are down by 10% from their mid-2022 peaks, but we think there is still another 15% to come by the end of 2024. Much of that price fall will be driven by a rise in cap rates in... 23rd August 2023 · 1 min read
