Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024)

Property valuations were little changed in Q1 2024, failing to build upon the considerable improvement in 2023. Property yields increased further, but the smaller rise failed to offset gains in...

16th May 2024 · 0 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

NCREIF Q1 NPI shows more pain to come

While the headline of the Q1 NCREIF NPI data (-0.9% q/q total return) suggests we could be near the end of the price falls, we think this simply stored up bigger falls for the rest of the year. The...

26th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Further value falls to come, but should reach trough in H2

Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the coming quarters, but better valuations, falling interest rates and improving economic activity suggest a trough should be reached...

21st March 2024 · 31 mins read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Fall in mortgage rates will allow market to recover

A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the...

15th March 2024 · 18 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Peak in yields is near, but little scope for compression

Improved valuations suggest that the price correction in prime property is almost done. However, with little scope for bond yields in continental Europe to fall from here and property-to-bond yield...

13th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

CRE Drop-In: Unpacking the slowest commercial real estate recovery on record

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The recovery that we’re forecasting for the US, UK and euro-zone commercial property markets is likely to be the weakest on record.

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024)

All-property valuations saw the largest quarterly increase in over a decade in Q4, as property yields rose across all sectors and the 10-year Treasury yield saw its sharpest quarterly decline since Q1...

26th February 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024)

Property valuations improved in Q4 on the back of further rises in property yields and falls in alternative asset yields. This resulted in many office and retail markets shifting into fair value...

21st February 2024 · 0 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

What does the recent rebound in REIT prices tell us?

At face value, the rebound in European equity REIT prices over recent months suggests that capital values could be nearing their trough. But the past relationship is weak and REITs have benefited from...

2nd February 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Direct market values to fall despite signals from REITs

Typically, US REIT price indices have been a good indicator of the growth path for capital values in the direct market. That said, even though REIT prices rebounded in Q4 2023, we don’t expect the...

30th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2023)

The worsening in total returns to -3.0% q/q in Q4 was consistent with our expectations of bigger-than-average year-end markdowns. But the major takeaway was that the data and NCREIF’s release notes...

29th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2024

Our total returns forecasts for 2024 are significantly below consensus, as we predict that value falls will reach double digits for the second consecutive year. Retail stands out as the only sector...

9th January 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

A look back on our key calls for 2023

While SVB’s collapse in March and sharper rises in interest rates led to larger-than-expected falls in commercial real estate (CRE) values, our expectations for sector and regional winners were...

3rd January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2023)

Property yields rose across all sectors in Q3, but this was offset by a sharp rise in alternative asset yields towards the end of the quarter. As a result, all sectors saw a deterioration in...

6th December 2023 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2023)

Property yields rose across all sectors in Q3 and a surge in office yields drove the sharpest rise in all-property yields so far this year. However, this was matched by the spike in bond yields in...

23rd November 2023 · 0 mins read