UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (May 23) House prices flattened off in May after a rise in April. But with mortgage rates now on their way back up we suspect that the stabilisation in prices over the last couple of months will soon give way... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations continue to improve but remain stretched European property valuations continued to improve in Q1 on the back of further increases in property yields as well as falls in government bond yields. Nonetheless, all office and industrial markets... 31st May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuation scores rise sharply, but there is more to come Our commercial property valuation scores rose sharply in Q1, suggesting that Q3 2022 was a trough in valuations. Office and retail sectors now look fairly valued. While we think retail values do not... 26th May 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tight supply limits US and UK house price falls The increase in mortgage rates has been the main determinant of the size of house price falls in developed market economies. Very tight supply in the US, and to a lesser extent the UK, has also... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property close to fairly valued Following a surge in property yields over the second half of last year, property moved closer to fair value again in Q1. Admittedly, on our measure the all-property score is still sitting in... 17th May 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is industrial still dangerously overvalued? Substantial yield compression over the past two years meant that by the middle of 2022 industrial had become the most overvalued sector since our measure began in 1992. That helps explains the... 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1 2023) Total returns of -1.8% q/q in Q1 reflected a much smaller markdown in values than in Q4. But, looking ahead, we remain convinced that the strains being felt by many investors will drive sharper price... 26th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Where are the risks from US commercial real estate greatest? While we expect a more-than 20% peak-to-trough price correction for US commercial real estate, offices face a much tougher outlook, with large falls in net operating incomes compounding the broader re... 4th April 2023 · 14 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations improve but all sectors still overvalued A sharp increase in property yields in Q4 helped European property valuations improve for the first time in two years. That said, spreads over alternative assets remained very narrow by past standards... 2nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuation scores rise, but still some way to go this year Q4 property valuation scores rose from their Q3 troughs, as equity earnings yields fell and property yields all increased. Even so, that left all major sectors still looking overvalued, suggesting... 23rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the worst behind us? This week’s data contained encouraging signs that inflationary pressures are fading, and the risks to our view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.5% this year now lie to the downside. The January MSCI data... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Surge in property yield helps valuations improve A surge in property yields helped commercial property valuations improve for the first time in two years in the final quarter of 2022. Jumps in alternative asset yields late last year following the... 8th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office values fall faster than after the GFC Early data indicate that German offices saw the steepest increases in yields on record in late 2022. And we think that with policy rates set to go higher, it is too early to rule out further rises in... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Activity to slump as prices adjust to higher rates 2023 will be the most difficult year for the housing market since 2008. Mortgage rates remain very high by the standards of recent years and can’t drop materially until the Bank of England shifts from... 26th January 2023 · 25 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2022) The 4.45% hit to all-property capital values in Q4 was more substantial than our end-2022 forecasts implied, although recent news of bigger valuation markdowns in December made this less of a surprise... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Blackstone and Starwood symptoms rather than causes On the face of it, the news of unlisted REITs reaching redemptions limits suggests cause for concern as it could point to forced sales over the coming months. However, both BREIT and SREIT have solid... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
