UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q1 2023 Final) The final Q1 2023 GDP data confirms that the economy steered clear of a recession at the start of 2023. But with around 60% of the drag from higher interest rates yet to be felt, we still think the... 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Full impact of higher rates still to come Heavily indebted households are still being sheltered from the full impact of the surge in interest rates over the past 18 months, but their finances look ever-more perilous. 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi unlikely to revisit last year’s lows The renminbi strengthened sharply against the US dollar in response to China’s move away from zero-COVID. But the currency has since reversed much of those gains and is now approaching 7.10/$, its... 30th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What to do about Japan’s large corporate surplus? Japan’s large corporate sector surpluses are a key source of deflationary pressure. Corporate savings surged in the 1990s, primarily because net interest payments slumped, and have since remained... 2nd May 2023 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Can Chile’s private sector cope with higher interest rates? There’s little evidence (so far) that the surge in interest rate is leading to widespread debt servicing problems in Chile’s private sector, but there are pockets of vulnerability in the household... 25th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update What to do about persistent corporate surpluses? A higher corporate tax would reduce corporate sector surpluses and could stimulate demand if the additional revenue were used to finance higher public spending or transfers to households. But the tax... 17th April 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening recovery to shift down a gear Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the... 29th March 2023 · 23 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Most of the hit from high interest rates still to come The fixed payment structure of most variable rate mortgages has cushioned households from the impact of high interest rates so far, with the data this week confirming that debt service costs remained... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pandemic savings won’t rescue the economy The value of savings that households built up during the pandemic has been wiped out by inflation. Rising interest rates, together with a desire to rebuild the spending power of their savings, suggest... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Have households spent all their pandemic savings? There is mounting evidence that households have exhausted their stock of savings built up during the pandemic. That has supported real spending and cushioned the blow from the fall in real household... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Rare drop in household wealth will cap recovery Bank deposits held by Chinese households have soared over the past year. But that mostly reflects a shift out of riskier assets rather than a surge in savings. In fact, our calculations show that... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Dec.) December’s money and credit figures revealed that higher interest rates further dampened economic activity at the end of last year. Moreover, the drag on activity will continue to intensify this year... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack At the back of the pack The 0.3% q/q contraction in Q3 left real GDP 0.8% below its Q4 2019 pre-virus level and the UK economy lagging even further behind its major counterparts. In contrast, GDP has risen above its pre... 5th January 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Nov.) November’s money and credit figures showed further signs that higher interest rates are dampening activity, particularly in the housing market. This will be a constant theme over the year ahead... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Three years on It is three years since a cluster of cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan. Chart 1 maps economic developments in China since then. The blue bars show cumulative growth since... 4th January 2023 · 12 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Oct.) October’s money and credit figures highlight how higher interest rates are starting to influence the economy. Higher interest rates are weakening the demand for credit, especially for mortgages, and... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
