Canada Economics Weekly Household debt service ratio will continue to rise Household net worth fell in the third quarter, although the recent resurgence in bond and equity prices means that should soon be reversed. It is too soon to sound the all-clear for households’... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa and the impact of upcoming pension reform In light of President Ramaphosa’s assent to the Pension Funds Amendment Bill yesterday, we are re-sending this Update from late last year that takes a closer look at the impending changes to South... 14th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year We suspect that both economies will narrowly avoid a recession but a prolonged period of below-trend growth will reduce price pressures and allow central banks to ease monetary policy again. We’ve... 13th December 2023 · 20 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end next year Following a strong 2023, GDP growth is set to slow towards potential next year and the labour market will tread water for now. However, with the virtuous cycle between consumer prices and inflation... 4th December 2023 · 18 mins read
US Economics Update What explains the resilience of consumption? We are doubtful that the recent strength of consumption is because real incomes are being understated, as some have suggested. It is more likely that so-called “excess savings” were previously... 20th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 2: How will the savings/investment balance affect r*? Why savings and investment incentives will become better aligned in the next decade than over the past 20 years, causing r* to rise. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stimulus to deliver partial recovery China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling for a brief period during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains... 27th September 2023 · 17 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the odd one out We no longer expect Japan’s economy to enter a recession. However, with real household incomes set to fall until the end of this year, domestic demand growth will remain sluggish. Accordingly, we... 4th September 2023 · 18 mins read
China Economics Weekly A major step-up in support Stimulus efforts are finally gaining momentum. Yesterday, regulators announced measures to support households and shore up the property sector, including looser downpayment requirements and reductions... 1st September 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update SAVE to soften blow as student loan payments resume The SAVE student loan plan eases the burden on low-income households and should reduce the economic impact as repayments resume in October. Nonetheless, with the hit to disposable incomes just one of... 29th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan won’t rush to tighten policy With the economy seemingly running hot and underlying inflation still accelerating, the case for tighter monetary policy looks increasingly compelling. However, we still expect the Bank of Japan to... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession now looking unlikely Wage growth has been strong in recent months which will make it easier for households to cope with high inflation. What’s more, the outlook for external demand has brightened as we no longer expect... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Is the cost of living crisis coming to an end? With CPI inflation soon to fall below average earnings growth, the cost of living crisis appears to be coming to an end. But households won’t suddenly stop feeling the pinch. We suspect the level of... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Boost from “excess” savings now exhausted The resilience of consumption over the past year is partly because households have been willing to save less of their income than before the pandemic, which lends some support to the idea that... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
