Chief Economist's Note It’s not just France. Europe faces ongoing decline without fundamental reform at its core. When Europe features prominently in client questions it is not normally a good sign. The past few days have been no exception. The immediate concern is France, where the government of Michel Barnier... 9th December 2024
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the world economy is in a soft patch. There are signs that global manufacturing is headed for recession and trade will soften. Consumers in DMs... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a... 9th October 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone household saving rate likely to stay high Data published today show that the euro-zone’s household saving rate rose even further in Q2 this year. The increase since late 2022 can be attributed to low consumer confidence and high interest... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Weak growth to prompt more aggressive loosening With the inflation battle all but won, weak GDP growth will force the Bank of Canada into more aggressive action, with a couple of 50bp interest rate cuts to end this year. We expect the Bank to adopt... 25th September 2024 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Fed loosening cycle impact the Gulf? The US Federal Reserve looks certain to start its loosening cycle this evening and, by virtue of their dollar pegs and open capital accounts, central banks across the Gulf will follow suit. Lower... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Low saving rate not a major concern The continued decline in the saving rate, which is now close to a 16-year low, is not a major concern given the recent surge in household net wealth. Furthermore, as the saving rate is calculated from... 16th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will deliver final rate hike later this year The economy is on the mend and underlying inflation seems to be levelling off around the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Accordingly, we still expect a final rate hike in October. But as inflation falls... 5th September 2024 · 18 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Savings problem to weigh on Colombia’s prospects The prevailing view that, over the medium term, Colombia will maintain its position as Latin America’s fastest-growing major economy looks overly optimistic in light of the collapse in its savings and... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update High household saving rate unlikely to plummet Tight monetary policy and low consumer confidence have pushed the euro-zone’s household saving rate up to unusually high levels. While interest rates are set to keep falling and confidence might... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a wobbly period around the turn of the year, the economy is on the mend and should gather... 25th July 2024 · 1 min read
