Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt: winners and losers of a weaker EGP emerging Recent falls in the pound and rising borrowing costs forced Egypt’s Ministry of Finance to revise up its targets for debt and the budget deficit earlier this week, but we remain of the view that the... 2nd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2022) The 0.2% q/q fall in Brazil’s GDP in Q4, which was driven by weakness in domestic demand, provides clear evidence that high interest rates are taking a heavier toll on the economy. Taken together with... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Capital Spending (Q4 2022) The increase in capital spending reported in today’s “Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations” is broadly consistent with the preliminary Q4 GDP estimate. That means Q4 GDP growth is likely to... 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dwellings investment won’t fall as sharply Although the fall in house prices slowed significantly in February, we are not convinced that Australia’s housing market is out of the woods yet. Even so, there are growing indications that dwellings... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: industrial downturn bottoming out The manufacturing PMIs for February remained very weak in most EMs, but they did at least provide signs that industry across much of the emerging world has fared better so far this year than it did in... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Industry struggling but possibly past the worst The broad-based improvement in the output components of February’s manufacturing PMIs suggests that the worst of the global industrial downturn is already in the rear-view mirror. That said, it is too... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 47.7 in February, from 47.4, leaves it firmly in contractionary territory. That should temper talk of a manufacturing resurgence on the back of... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Event China Drop-In: The National People’s Congress and China’s economic outlook 1678107600 The annual meeting of China’s National People’s Congress began this weekend with the publication of key economic targets for the coming year.
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (February) The renewed rise in headline inflation in Germany, France and Spain in February suggests euro-zone inflation edged up this month, rather than falling as had been expected. With signs that underlying... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The sharp fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month provides further signs that the country’s electricity crisis is taking a heavy toll on the economy. And the jump in the prices component... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The manufacturing PMIs for February suggest that industrial sectors in Central and Eastern Europe are continuing to struggle, but there are tentative signs that the region may now be past the worst of... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (Feb.) Manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Asia rose in February, helped by a rebound in the export orders sub-component. While the data provide the first tentative signs that the worst may be over for the region... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading edged down in February to a four-month low. We expect the reading to drop further over the coming months as both external and domestic demand soften. 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Feb.) The latest survey data are exceptionally strong across the board, consistent with our expectation for a rapid near-term rebound. We expect this recovery to lose momentum later in the year but the... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
