Chief Economist's Note Whatever happened to the China “growth miracle”? Last week’s disappointing China economic releases were greeted by the usual calls for more stimulus to boost near-term growth. These are part of a long-standing tradition for when data undershoot... 22nd May 2023
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s ‘mutual death’, external imbalances easing Ecuador’s political crisis escalated this week after President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the National Assembly to dodge an imminent impeachment vote. Whoever wins the fresh elections, the next couple... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly It’s Erdogan’s show, Poland’s giveaways, GDP wrap-up Sunday's presidential election result in Turkey has left Erdogan in pole position to win in the second round run-off on 28th May. If Erdogan does win, all eyes will focus on Turkey’s imbalances and... 19th May 2023 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economic resilience emboldens Fed hawks Recent solid activity data and the apparent progress on debt ceiling negotiations appear to have convinced some Fed officials that it is still too early to pause interest rate hikes. We still aren’t... 19th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation down in Sweden, euro-zone stagnating As of this week, coverage of Switzerland and the Nordic economies will be incorporated, along with the euro-zone, in our expanded Europe Economics service. Among the Nordics, the key data release this... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam friend-shoring boost, Thai election muddle Decoupling between China and the US is presenting opportunities for countries that are able to adapt their economies to shifting global supply chains. So far, the main beneficiary of these shifts has... 19th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession and higher prices to sink spending in H2 Stubborn price pressures and a recession in the second half mean real disposable incomes are set to continue shrinking through year-end. With the savings rate now barely higher than it was pre... 19th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much will ECB tightening affect GDP? Our best guess is that the impact of monetary policy tightening on euro-zone economic activity will be less than five percent of GDP, which is the lower end of a range estimated in an ECB Economic... 18th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q1) Growth in Chile’s economy accelerated at the start of the year, but the headline figure masks signs of pronounced weakness. We expect the economy to struggle over the coming quarters amid tight... 18th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE downturns easing, but tepid growth to follow Economies across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have significantly underperformed the euro-zone and the rest of the world in recent quarters, which has its roots in the scale of the inflation shock... 18th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s electricity crisis threatening stagflation A quick solution to South Africa’s energy crisis is nowhere to be seen. Not only will power cuts remain a drag on economy but there are growing concerns that they are fuelling inflation, threatening... 18th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt sovereign default worries mount Fears among investors have continued to grow that Egypt’s government will default on its debt in the coming years although, for now at least, there remains a path to avoid such an outcome. Taking that... 18th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr. 2023) The weakness in April’s jobs data suggest that the labour demand is starting to cool. Admittedly, there continue to be some pockets of resilience in the labour market. However, with wage growth... 18th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2023) The smaller-than-expected 1.9% y/y contraction in Russian GDP in Q1 suggests that the economy has turned a corner and that growth accelerated in q/q terms at the start of this year. Industry and... 17th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the euro-zone’s exports After stalling at the end of last year export growth seems to have provided a boost to the euro-zone economy in the first quarter of 2023. However, we doubt that exports will be a major source of... 17th May 2023 · 4 mins read
