Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s chunky rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy will grow in Q1. With the labour market still very tight and price pressures strong, the survey will reinforce ECB... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Poland’s softer-than-expected activity data for January suggest that the economy started 2023 on weak footing and we expect it to struggle for momentum over the first half of the year as high... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea: recession and rate cuts The near-term economic outlook for Korea is very poor, with falling real incomes, problems in the housing market, and weak global demand all set to weigh on prospects this year. Our forecast is that... 21st February 2023 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 23) February’s flash PMIs are broadly consistent with our downbeat narrative of the economy in 2023. The manufacturing PMI fell further due largely to a plunge in export orders, while a further rise in... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2022) The 2.1% contraction in Russian GDP in 2022 was smaller than expected and is consistent with an expansion in Q4, providing further evidence to suggest that the economy stabilised after the initial hit... 20th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Comparing CE forecasts to the consensus Being ranked by the Sunday Times as the top UK economic forecaster for 2022 is a great accolade and has generated a lot of interest in what we expect to happen next. Our forecasts for 2023 imply a... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB’s balance sheet run-off should be smooth Quantitative tightening and the repayment of TLTROs mean that the ECB’s assets are likely to decline by around one quarter by the end of 2024. We expect the repayment of TLTROs to have a negligible... 20th February 2023 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM investment: weak outlook and clear divergence EM investment surged far above pre-pandemic levels last year, but there was a clear divergence across countries and we think investment growth will slow in 2023. One worrying development is that... 20th February 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy starts the year on a strong footing Echoing the unexpectedly large increase in payroll employment last month, January’s retail sales and manufacturing output data were unquestionably strong too. Admittedly, retail sales appear to have... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Recessions arrive in CEE, external deficits narrowing The big picture from the Q4 GDP data this week was that, despite some divergence within the region, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a whole had a relatively poor end to 2022. We expect CEE... 17th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Has core inflation already peaked? A leading ECB dove argued this week that core inflation has passed its peak on some measures. However, these measures are distorted by Germany’s temporary transport subsidies last summer. Underlying... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
