UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) While the composite flash PMI improved marginally in November, it stayed firmly below the no-change level of 50.0, which is consistent with our view that the economy is already in recession. However... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack North Africa turns to IMF to ease external strains Economies across North Africa have endured severe balance of payments strains this year and governments in Egypt and Tunisia finally secured staff-level agreements with the IMF over the past month... 23rd November 2022 · 10 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Weakening again in the face of COVID Our China Activity Proxy suggests that virus disruption led to a further decline in output in October. The combination of tightening COVID restrictions, voluntary isolation in the face of rising cases... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Resilient monthly data do not change gloomy outlook Recent monthly data from the advanced economies have tended to exceed analysts’ gloomy expectations. This is partly due to an easing of supply shortages, which could offer some further support to... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) October’s activity data for Poland suggest that the economy lost some steam at the start of Q4 and we think it was probably at the start of recession. We expect that evidence of a deeper downturn... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November) The flash PMIs for November add to the evidence that the economy will contract in Q4. The price indices suggest that inflation will soon peak, but they remain extremely high by past standards. 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3, revised estimate) Revised GDP data confirm that the economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter. However, we don’t expect this strength to last. A combination of weaker global growth, high inflation and tighter... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Threat of widespread lockdowns high and rising The next few weeks could be the worst in China since the early weeks of the pandemic both for the economy and the healthcare system. Efforts to contain the current outbreak will, at the very least... 22nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic resilience won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of consumer spending is keeping hopes of a soft landing alive. Although GDP growth looks to have slowed in the fourth quarter, and most leading indicators of recession are flashing red... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The small fall in retail sales volumes in September appears to have been reversed in October but, more generally, sales volumes have been little changed for the past six months and the low leve of... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus The economic threat from cyberwarfare The Ukraine war has sent the risk of Russian cyberattacks on the West soaring up the agenda, with an attack on critical infrastructure potentially bringing whole economies to a halt. In most cases, a... 22nd November 2022 · 16 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Surging inflation won’t last Headline inflation shot up to 3.7% y/y in October, the strongest since December 1990 while inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose from 1.8% to 2.5%. Although this puts inflation well above the... 21st November 2022 · 11 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) Thailand’s economy accelerated in the third quarter on the back of a surge in service exports. Although the global downturn and higher interest rates will weigh on prospects, we expect growth to hold... 21st November 2022 · 3 mins read