Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the euro-zone’s exports After stalling at the end of last year export growth seems to have provided a boost to the euro-zone economy in the first quarter of 2023. However, we doubt that exports will be a major source of... 17th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Mar.) March’s activity data out of South Africa suggest that the economy is likely to have skirted a technical recession, but the outlook is bleak as the intensification of power cuts weighs on activity and... 17th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Best of Mexico’s recovery now over Mexico’s economy has put in a decent performance over the past year or so, but we think that most of the factors that have supported robust growth have now run their course. Tight policy and a looming... 17th May 2023 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will hike to 5.75% in July The latest data don’t tell a compelling story as far as the outlook for inflation and the economy are concerned. Although inflation expectations are falling, measures of underlying inflation are still... 17th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q1 2023 Preliminary) GDP surprised to the upside last quarter, mainly because of stronger performances in private consumption and business investment than preliminary data had indicated. That suggests that there is... 17th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr.) Solid gains in retail sales and manufacturing output in April indicate that the economy remains resilient to the impact of higher interest rates and tightening lending standards. That said, real... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Quantifying the economic hit from climate change Many academic studies underplay the extent to which higher temperatures could affect economic activity over the long run. Nonetheless, even in a scenario in which the global average temperature rose... 16th May 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q1 2023) GDP growth remained fairly solid in Israel in Q1 (2.5% q/q annualised) as it came in slightly above expectations thanks to an unexpected surge in business investment. We think growth will come in... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The labour market has been remarkably strong so far this year and we think it will continue to hold up much better than the GDP data might suggest in the coming quarters. 16th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2023) Q1 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe were fairly weak on the whole, but Poland’s economy beat expectations and the worst of the regional downturn now appears to have passed. Even so, headwinds... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: strong start to the year unlikely to be sustained The stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP data from Colombia suggest that the risks to our forecast for the economy to expand by 0.8% over 2023 as a whole are skewed to the upside. That said, there were signs... 16th May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) Growth on most indicators accelerated in y/y terms in April. But this was due to a weak base for comparison from a year ago when Shanghai and several other cities went into lockdown. In seasonally... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Chinese economic growth at 2% – Revisiting our 2018 call 1685001600 Five years ago, we forecast that China’s trend economic growth would be as little as 2% by the end of this decade. At the time, it was a decidedly minority view.
